At first of September, I wrote about the seasonals and warned that it was a foul month for inventory markets with a notice that it was the worst calendar month for the S&P 500. It definitely delivered with an 8.7% decline.
In FX, the US greenback continued its year-long parade increased in September. It was a wild experience with unimaginable basic alternatives within the foreign exchange market. We depart the month with market members in a horrible temper. The AAII sentiment survey is 60.8% bearish this week and which means — for the primary time within the historical past of the survey courting again to 1987 — it is +60% for 2 weeks operating. It is also solely the sixth time above 60% ever.
Everyone seems to be sensing a recession. That is normally a possibility however what do the seasonals say?
- Second finest month for AUD
- Fourth finest month for the greenback index
- Weakest month for EUR/AUD
- Third weakest month for the euro
- Third-best month for the Nasdaq (and never far off from the most effective), although volatility is excessive with double digit good points/losses not unusual
- Fourth finest month for the S&P 500
- Third finest month for the DAX
- Strongest month of the yr for pure fuel
- Weakest month of the yr for oil
- Seasonal weak point in bonds
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