Oil is struggling immediately on demand worries however provide would be the story subsequent 12 months.
The most recent numbers from the EIA peg US output rising 500,000 barrels per day this 12 months versus 540,000 bpd beforehand. That may put output at 11.75 mbpd.
For 2023 they now see manufacturing rising 610k bpd versus 840k bpd beforehand (and 1.05m in June). That is a complete of 270K bpd much less in 2023 and I nonetheless assume dangers are to the draw back.
On the demand facet, they see 20k bpd extra demand progress this 12 months however minimize 2023 demand progress by 490k. A lot of the latter hinges on what China does with zero covid.
In any case, the oil market is down immediately with WTI crude oil down $3 to $86.51.
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